What Taiwan’s 2024 Election Means for China, the US, and the Future of Taiwan
This article co-authored by Syaru Shirley Lin, Caroline Fried, and Siwei Huang at the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (CAPRI) provided in-depth analysis on the implication of Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections on current domestic governance challenges and the changing Taipei-Beijing-Washington relationship.
Taiwan’s election in January 2024 was the first to focus primarily on domestic policy rather than national identity or relations with China. The presidential candidates’ platforms converged to support protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty and rejecting China’s formula for unification. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s complex domestic problems, including unaffordable housing, stagnating wages, an aging population, energy insecurity, and unsustainable entitlements, were prominent election issues. The Democratic Progressive Party won an unprecedented third term for the presidency, but the legislature was split among three parties. Although Beijing will likely continue its economic coercion and military build-up, it will also need to develop different strategies to win hearts in Taiwan. Taiwanese are also increasingly skeptical of the US, which has been upgrading political relations with Taiwan but without enhancing Taiwan’s international role or offering it tangible economic benefits. With no single political party securing a majority of seats in parliament, Taiwan will be unable to balance its interests between China and the US or expedite the implementation of reforms.
